Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $832,929$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(5.75 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,031,904.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 151.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,031,904.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $32,914$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(2.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,699.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 129.0)}}\) (asimptote \(35,699.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $76,409$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $137,706$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(7.87 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{141,751.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 131.9)}}\) (asimptote \(141,751.9\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,192$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(253 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,495.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 151.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,495.1\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,246$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,000,694$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(2.94 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,282,075.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 136.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,282,075.0\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $148,228$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{151,476.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 117.0)}}\) (asimptote \(151,476.9\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $395,294$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $474,440$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(5.8 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{436,479.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 106.1)}}\) (asimptote \(436,479.5\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,090$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,299.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 106.2)}}\) (asimptote \(12,299.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,297$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $143,531$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(3.98 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{163,168.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 134.9)}}\) (asimptote \(163,168.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,743$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.83 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,125.2}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 230.2)}}\) (asimptote \(29,125.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,277$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $877,684$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{941,274.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 155.0)}}\) (asimptote \(941,274.4\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,180$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(849 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,230.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 142.8)}}\) (asimptote \(29,230.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $76,531$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $840,915$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(7.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,277,337.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 189.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,277,337.8\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $22,226$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(108 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{362,989.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 297.6)}}\) (asimptote \(362,989.7\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $147,964$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,979$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(-6.16 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,155.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,155.3\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $106$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(2.99 \times 10^{-17} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 146.2)}}\) (asimptote \(127.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $92$ on 2020-10-07
